globally warmed.. just for you..

I must admit.. I recently read Michael Crichton’s ‘State of Fear’…
And the pages of facts and questions raised in that book led me to do a small research of my own into this ‘global warming’ phenomena.

1st off… Kyoto Pact.. just a series of rules and regulations that advice on the level of CO2 (n other green house gases) emissions and pollutants levels. Most countries have earnestly signed the pact, except for ‘dork’ ruled US of A, China and a few other countries.

BUT.. did you know... that Kyoto's costs are excessively high and its benefits, in terms of net climate cooling, infinitesimally small. Cost estimates for the first round of Kyoto, from now till 2012, are of the order of €500-billion to €1 trillion. The proponents of Kyoto have calculated (but never published) that this will result in a net cooling of less than 0.02 (two hundredths!) degrees Celsius in 2050. This is undetectable even with the most accurate thermometers of today. Moreover, the yearly fluctuations of temperatures are a multiple of this figure.

Talk of global warming and the media loves to play clips of large chunks of ice falling off from huge glaciers at the poles…
But.. scientific reports abound.. that in the last 2 decades or so..there has actually been a period of growth.. many significant glaciers have actually advanced to within 40% of their original sizes ( from the times of the last Ice Age!!!!)

In fact there are even reports that the increased CO2 levels in the atmosphere have lead to a significant increase in agricultural productivity all over the world!!!

The UN has been screaming themselves hoarse with their surface temperature records for the last 200-300 yrs or so.. and pointing out the warming rate of about 0.17˚C (0.31˚F) per decade since 1979.
But parallel research involving temperature measurement by other methods such as weather balloons and satellites.. show a completely different picture.
More or less.. temperatures have remained constant.
Offcourse.. skeptics might argue that the UN records talk abt surface temperatures and contradicting info talks abt atmospheric temperatures ( atleast 10+ km)….in which case.. once again.. this anomaly in the temperatures just goes on to show our relative ignorance of atmosphere and how weather changes. Conventional knowledge would have led us to blive that both sets of readings should have been in agreement to some extent atleast..!!!
The lower tropospheric data are often cited as evidence against global warming, because they have as yet failed to show any warming trend when averaged over the entire Earth. The lower stratospheric data show a significant cooling trend, which is consistent with ozone depletion. In addition to the recent cooling, large temporary warming perturbations may be seen in the data due to two major volcanic eruptions: El Chichon in March 1982, and Mt. Pinatubo in June 1991.

Leave apart the temperature levels… lets talk abt sea levels. Proponents of global warming say yes, it is rising. Facts are there for all to see…most reports claim a rise in abt 10-25 cms in the last 100yrs…researchers speculate that probable causes range from global warming, melting of ice caps to other “inexplicable” factors.
But interestingly, no report will claim with absolute certainty the reasons. All just mention the rise and probable causes.

No.. im not saying global warming is not happening.. IT IS. And we need to embrace the Kyoto pact.. cuz even if the benefits seem miniscule to our generation….its worth it.
All im trying to say here is that, many ppl read abt global warming and go..” the end is here.. we’re doomed”…but even the best researchers in this field will confess.. there’s still a lot to learn, still a lot to understand.. and a lot tat will remain inexplicable..

Weather prediction is still not called an “exact” science you see..proof? not a single climate model ever made has lived up to its expectations, to date.

Sources:
www.globalwarming.org; www.co2science.org ; www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov

Sensex-ional!!

No..im not covering porn in this post..tats better left to ppl much more qualified than urs truly.. tday's topic is the sensex..and it breached the 9000pt mark during trading some time yesterday.

History:oldest stock exchange in India, the Bombay Stock Exchange established in 1875 as the Native Share and Stock Brokers Association at Dalal Street. 318 persons became members upon paying Re 1.
The Sensex, first compiled in 1986, is a 'Market Capitalisation-Weighted' Index of 30 component stocks i.e. ACC, Bajaj, Bharti, BHEL, Cipla, Dr Reddy's, GACL, Grasim, HDFC, HDFC Bank, Hero Honda, Hindalco, HLL, ICICI Bank, Infosys, ITC, L&T, Maruti, NTPC, ONGC, Ranbaxy, Reliance, Reliance Energy, Satyam, SBI, Tata Motors, Tata Power, TCS, Tisco and Wipro

and now for my piece.. the sensex first showed signs of the current trend to fly up n away back in 92-93.. when the Congress govt backed economic reforms opened up the market.. declared the end of license raj.. foreign investments 1st started trickling in..(thanks manmohan singh!) proof:from 1000 in july 25,1990.. to 4000 on march 30,1992.
after tat there was no looking back.. from the BJP led coalition win.. to Reliance emerging as a major player in the private sector.. to the IT boom.. to the recent congress led electoral win.. offcourse there was the fair share of hiccups...like the harshad mehta scam..the dotcom bust..but suprisingly.. the BSE has displayed unusual recuperative powers.. and bounced back stronger than b4.. we even survived the south east asian Fin crisis relatively unharmed..!

Most skeptics of the current bull run .. tat began with the current govt's tenure at the centre...would never have believed that this run would last so long. hell.. i myself was happy to note the sluggish performance in the recent months.. which seemed to agree with the pessimistic market predictions tat were doin the rounds of late. Friends who are active in this financial circus.. gave me varying insights to the cause and effects of every spike or fall in the sensex... foreign investement .. esp from Japan, had the local speculators very excited abt the money waiting to be made. But rumours abounded that the japs were waitin for the right moment to start rolling their dice..

as for the current meteoric rise.. its attributed to sustained foreign fund buying and hopes of higher fund allocation for India in 2006 . (Foreign funds have bought Indian shares worth $780 million in November, taking the total to more than $8.48 billion in 2005, after pulling out more than $866 million in October. The mutual funds have put in Rs 363 crore so far in November after buying shares worth Rs 2,900 crore in October.) And the magic is not just being done by the poster boys of the 'moolah' club..offcourse the regular culprits like IT companies.. banks.. n infrastructure players have done well........ in addition there r capital goods heavyweights like L&T,seimens n others.. overall.. of the 30 in the sensex.. 26 haved moved into the green tday..(w-o-w!)

In short.. for ppl out there.. who like me are hesitant to enter the mkt.. fearing tat its the end of the bull run..i guess theres still money to be made.. take a risk..and hear the registers ring..!

one nite at the call centre..

sorry for this blatant plagiarism of the title of Chetan Bhagat's latest book..
but i happened to watch a chat show on MTV last nite which featured a bunch of young call centre folks and chetan bhagat himself..
before i continue.. i must mention here.. chetan bhagat dint come across as the smart, uber-kool, witty or sophisticated personality that ppl mite think him to be.. big dissappointment for most of my female frenz who fell in luv with the author of 5point some1.

neways back to the topic on my hand... bhagat says:
50% .. yes 50% is the attrition rate at call centres..

Odd work schedules and timings destroy the individuals' personal lives..

no growth.. no future... no life.

so he feels his book will help the many youngsters out there realise that its ok.. its not too late..
addressed to the thousands of CC employees out there... he seems to say:
" are u feelin lonely..?? feelin empty..?? feel like life has nuthin better to offer you..?? feelin like ure bein under utilised..??? dont worry.. its ok.. "

(im not makin the above up.. these r his comments .. from the "horse's mouth" .. as telecast yest in tat show from Mtv)

now needless to say.. the CC employees in the audience were clearly agitated by this attitude of bhagat.
one guy pointed out..
" im 26. have my own flat. have my own vehicle. have a good bank balance. in all aspects am very much an eligible bachelor. wat more job security do i want from life..??"

when asked abt the disruption in social life.. or rather havin no social life..
the same guy pointed out..
" do u have the same frenz now tat u had in school..?? dint u have diff frenz in college..? dint u have diff frenz at ur work place..?? the same with us.. we mite not have time for our older frenz.. but we make new frenz.. and we def have our share of fun and tp".

another participant from bangalore wisely pointed out..
" lets compare the nos of so called professionally satisfied doctors/engineers/MBA grads who have a blast and are socially active against the nos of CC employees.. no prizes for guessin which grp will have larger nos..!"

mumbai mirror carried the headlines tat CC employees lack self esteem... true..??
mebbe.. when it comes to talkin abt their job to others..
but face it..
im an IT engineer in Infosys.. india's best known bellweather IT company.. wat social life do i have..??
:))

the indian education system churns out graduates by the lakhs every yr..
other than the services sector... no other sector absorbs this vast workforce..
our inherent strength in having english as a widely used language for education places us indians in a position where we can exploit this skill to the best.
imagine wat wud have happened to India if the chinese too were ruled by the british, and english was the preferred language...??
the kids tday who pass out.. need some vocation.. the BPO industry is the knight in shining armour.. easy money and something to do.. definitely plusses as far as i can discern.

BUT... (theres always a BUT)..
fact remains.. 50% attrition rate is true.. why..??
most leave to work for better call centres..( read better as higher pay)
the rest leave .. to move on to better things.. to fulfil their true dreams..

my point being.. a CC job.. is nuthin but a transition..for most.. hence grudge it NOT.

neways.. i wrap this up by again citing last nite's show..
bhagat: " i may have been rong abt my views on the CC employee"
audience:" so does tat mean u will re write ur book?"
bhagat:" i cant do tat now.. but after tday i def have a diff opinion abt CC employees... and im sorry for representing a narrow cross section in my book".

Alls well in the land of dragons...

China..
what laurels are yet to be conferred on this rising dragon from the east..???
the country that from a humble begining of being percieved to be a land of oriental gang wars n tribal feuds...cheap opium and oriental pleasures..

to an economy that is closely followed and endorsed by the whole world. But all is not picture perfect in this eastern chop-suey..

the facts are plain to see..
-China has been growing at roughly 9% a year with an investment/GDP ratio of around 40%. India has been clocking about 6% a year with an investment/GDP ratio of about 25%.. in other words.. indian economy is being more efficient, in terms of returns on the investment made.

-China needs to grow at atleast 8% yr on yr... to provide employement for the millions of youth joining the workforce every yr.

-China withstood the 1997 Asian financial crisis mainly because they lack convertible currencies. Also, Beijing controls the banks. Bailouts and the banks' near-monopoly over China's vast domestic savings have kept them solvent despite mountains of bad loans to state firms.

-In 20 years, China will have an estimated 300 million people age 60 or older. Yet only one in six Chinese workers now has a pension plan, and just 5% have guaranteed medical benefits

-Power shortage: China's own natural power resources cannot catch up with its growth. How this issue can be tackled is fundamental to its long-term growth. And with oil prices rising every other day, the current growth rate of 9% mite not be sustainable.

-The widening gap between rural and urban, west and east. China's "go west" policy is not yet reaping results, although there has been positive trends toward diverting investment in Chengdu, Chongqing, and Wuhan.

- Health issues: the danger of SARS is still looming on the horizon and chinese authorities do seem to be taking every step possible to not let that be a reason to scare away future investments. But thanks to the vast diversity and uncontrolled development in certain regions , containment in case of an outbreak will be an impossible task. in short.. this is as a disaster waiting to happen.

- Taiwan remains a thorn in the relations between Japan and china.. and though both sides seem resolved not to turn it into a reason for war. unless handled carefully and diplomatically.. it could.( read this as.. DO NOT allow the US to dictate terms in this issue!!)

- untill recently when the yuan was marginally opened up to the market forces.. things were fine.. but the very fact tat the govt is still scared to subject the yuan 100% to market forces to determine its own pricing level in the market... is an indicator of the uncertainity regarding china's stability in terms of economy and politics.. both.


inspite of all the above.. its pretty much obvious tat unless a large scale disaster strikes.. china will very much continue its stellar performance and maintain its impressive growth rate...
reason?: large land mass.. the western coast may have saturated.. but the east n central parts still remain.. n will power the growth curve in the comin 1-2 decades..

sittin here at my desk though....i cant help but wonder.. wat does all the above mean to the common man..?? china is after all just the place where the "chinees food" originated..shut up and enjoy the schezwan..!!!

Bangalore to be bangalored..!!!

A full circle.. tat shud describe the solution provided by kalam recently to solve blore infra + IT woes..

to quote verbatim from a report on financial express:
“By improving infrastructure in tier-two cities across the state, it is possible to attract 40% of the BPO and call centre work to these secondary cities and reduce the density of Bangalore’s population”

To better understand the need for the above.. consider the following:
- the plight of the traffic on hosur road is so bad, its often joked that ppl leave for office at night and sleep in the bus, so that they reach office on time.
- till a few yrs back.. basic amenities itself like electricity,water,telecom,transport etc were a big problem in most areas. tday.. atleast this has been resolved to a good extent. for example.. not very long ago.. it was the tin boxed state trans buses tat crowded the streets of blore.. tday's its the more modern lookin, spacious and more environ friendly buses tat ply the roads.
- most arterial roads like the hosur road is def in the limelight for all the wrong reasons, thanx to the industry... but the prob is not limited to these.. blore needs to draw up a complete revised plan to develop better connectivity between various points in the city.. n if possible expand current busy routes.
- drainage system in the city needs a major overhaul.. the recent fiasco in blore due to heavy rains.. mirrored the disaster that hit mumbai a few weeks back. BMC has access to reqd funds, wat remains is designing and implementation of a suitable plan. and a tight reign on the level of corruption offcourse.
- states like MAH, GUJ.. are now boasting of superior infra and IT perks...to try n win over the so called blore IT club.



And so far.. the remedial action involves the following (on paper atleast):
Chief Minister Dharam Singh, indicated over Rs 500 crore had been spent on improving the roads in the city during the last 17 months.
his government would also seek financial aid from the Centre to take up gradation of 38 roads, involving 492 km, at a cost of Rs 516 crore, also that the government had cleared construction of an eight-lane 109 km peripheral ring road at a cost of Rs 1,190 crore.

Personally i have no opinion on this issue.. its been beaten to death.. but for the sake of the many blore lovers out there..( u kno who u r..)..i hope blore is indeed blored..!

I too want a seat in the security council..

:)
i cant stop smilin..
a few weeks back.. the hopes of the G4 were dashed to the ground.. when the african union.. the largest representative in the UN in terms of seats...refused to support the G4 bid to gain a permament seat.

their excuse.. india has not been a good friend in the last few yrs and hasnt done all tat much to help the poorer african brethren...
true.. when our economy is boomin.. y shud we bother lookin at our poorer neighbours...???
( i kno.. very capitalistic..but then.. face it.. only the super developed and super rich can afford a philanthropic foreign program..!!!)

but let that be.. the reason for the smile on my face tday is not the above.. but a piece of news i read yesterday in TOI..
Kenya.. is tryin to lobby for a permament seat in the UN SC... and as part of its campaign..
the kenyan govt lent an assortment of 175 wild animals.. to a private zoo in thailand.. which is a pet project of the current prez there.. in return.. thailand now supports kenya's bid for a seat in the UNSC..

W-O-W..!!!

i guess (175 X N) more animals..(where N= no of votes necessary for a majority in the UN house)...n voila..!!
kenya gets the much coveted permanent seat...!!!
brilliant campaign srategy no folks..??
:))
offcourse.. at the time of writing this... my imaginary best friend..( my dog 'bobo').. did mention somethin abt cruelty to the animals.. and nobody askin those poor animals if they wanted to be part of the campaign..!
but then.. bobo's voice is after all.. imaginary....virtual.. he dint really say it.. did he..?

The first of many...

This blog will be nuthing like the previous one..
its purely meant to jot down my opinions on everythin in life.

1st off.. its every1s pet "tear it down" topic.. politics.
its funny, how most will use "dirty politics" as a convenient excuse to NOT follow wats happenin in the intriguing world of politics and satta..
but more often than not.. its hard not to keep track of the more interestin moments in the only vocation for man.. which involves a whole lot of guts, luck, gift of the gab, money.. or in some cases.. a godfather/godmother..

wats been catchin my eye of late is the current rane Vs thackeray issue..
Its interestin.. why..? simple..
Malvan region was the shiv sena stronghold.. thanks to rane..
shiv sena for all its meritorious acts.. cant deny 1 thing.. more often than not.. their style has always bordered on the flashy,critical,satirical and "dadagiri" brand of politics.
Now when Rane, the right hand man who helped maintain the sena reign in the region switches allegiance to congress.. the question is.. who will stick his neck out against Rane..??
Shiv sena has tried everythin.. from tryin to rope in uddhav for campaignin..( poor show really..!!! n raj cudnt attend ..WHY?? back pain.).. to screamin themselves hoarse that their god+ raison d'etre balasaheb now wholeheartedly supports their new candidate parshuram uparkar ( an ex rane aide).. to even stagin gandhian non violence dharnas..( EGAAAKS..!!!!!wat next..??? “quit malwan movement”??!!)...

Most opinion polls will write off a sainik victory... but any1 who thinks congress has caught itself a goose tat lays a golden egg...will be proverbially counting their chickens before the eggs hatch.
Rane himself knows better than to assume this battle to be a cakewalk.
Rane can’t register the mammoth win, he thought he could manage earlier, and the Sena is still struggling to get a foothold in the contest.
Rane is doing his best.. with the usual mix of support from political heavyweights to promising a domestic airport…but his political past.. (where NCP+Congress leaders in the region still hold him responsible for the killing of local NCP leader Satyavijay Bhise and local congress leader shreedhar naik)..might yet prove to be a thorn in an otherwise smooth campaign.
Sena is tryin to work the Thackeray magic.. and try and put the spotlight on everythin tat Rane did rong durin his sena tenure.


Tom is supposed to be the D day .. and for either side.. its a matter of prestige.
Shiv sena needs to win to show the rest of the world tat its still a tiger.. and not just a domestic cat tat is restricted to the corridoors of the BMC.
Rane needs to win.. to prove congress that it was indeed him tat Malwan voted for year after year.. all these years..!